Analyst Warning: Key Technical Support Levels and FOMC Meeting in Sync, Heightened Downside Risk for Bitcoin

According to the latest market analysis, Bitcoin’s price is hovering at a critical technical juncture. Analyst Daan Crypto points out that the current Fibonacci retracement area around 0.382 is a key support level that bulls must defend.

If this line of defense is breached, the market may open up further downside potential, targeting the April lows (around $75,000), at which point the entire bullish market structure will be severely tested.

In fact, the market’s vulnerability has already become apparent recently. On Sunday night, Bitcoin’s price briefly plunged below $88,000, widely seen as a precise “flush out” of high-leverage positions during a period of thin weekend liquidity.

However, after a large number of both long and short leveraged positions were liquidated, the price subsequently rebounded above $91,500. This price action also highlights the current market’s high volatility and leverage risk.

Meanwhile, the market’s core focus has completely shifted to the monetary policy meeting taking place this Tuesday and Wednesday. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 0.25% in December, but analysts also note that this rate cut expectation is already fully priced in, and the truly critical factor will be the Fed’s post-meeting economic outlook statement.

If the post-meeting statement delivers a hawkish or cautious signal, suggesting that the future rate-cutting path will be “non-linear and data-dependent,” a market scenario similar to October may reoccur. As a result, this move may not inject new momentum into the market and could instead continue to exert mild pressure through year-end.

In summary, Bitcoin is currently at the intersection of technical and macroeconomic forces. On one hand, it needs to hold key technical support to prevent structural breakdown; on the other hand, the market’s direction will largely depend on the Fed’s guidance for future monetary policy.

Given the current environment of low crypto trading volumes and continued net outflows from spot ETFs, most analysts believe that downside risk has significantly outweighed upside potential, and any underwhelming macro signals could become a catalyst for testing key support levels.

#比特币 # FOMC Meeting