Here comes the main event tonight: the Fed is about to make its announcement.

A 25 basis point cut? The market has already priced this in thoroughly—there’s no suspense there. What’s really worth watching isn’t whether they cut rates or not.

There are two key things to watch:
First, whether there will be internal disagreements.
I’ve heard that there’s quite a bit of arguing within the committee this time, and there may be a significant number of dissenting voices. The more people vote against it, the more it shows that even they aren’t confident, and the more uncertainty there will be in future policy.

Second, how Powell will handle the situation.
His comments are the real focus. Will he say, “We’ll pause after this cut,” or will he leave some room for market speculation? Every word he says will be dissected by the market.

To put it bluntly: the rate cut itself is just a formality. What really moves the market are the “internal disagreements” and the “post-meeting statements.”

What impact will this have on the crypto market?

A few possibilities:
If there are many dissenting votes (i.e., a lot of internal disagreement), the market will interpret this as a lack of confidence, and prices may dip in the short term.

If Powell’s speech is dovish (hinting at more rate cuts to come), the market may continue to go higher.

What’s most worrying is a black swan event—what if they don’t cut rates? Then there’s no need for analysis, just get ready for a rollercoaster ride.

So don’t rush to bet on a direction. Have your contingency plan ready first. Once the market has fully digested this round of news, the real trend will become clear.