Fed Rate Cut Almost Certain; Market Focuses on Voting Differences and Powell's Wording

[The Fed Rate Cut Almost a Foregone Conclusion; Market Focuses on Voting Dissent and Powell’s Language] This week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting is expected to be one of the most contentious in years. Investors are focusing on the extent of disagreement among policymakers regarding rate cuts and the signals Powell sends about the future path. Janus Henderson believes that, in the long run, the December meeting will not have a significant impact on the market. There may be some short-term volatility, but actions in the first half of 2026 are more important than those in December. Wilmington Trust believes that the market has largely priced in the Fed’s rate cut, and the real key is the Fed’s policy guidance. They expect the Fed to be very cautious, emphasizing dependence on economic data. Some observers think the probability of a Fed rate cut is not as high as the market suggests, and they are more concerned about Powell’s statement and the closeness of the policy vote. Nomura economists point out that nothing is set in stone yet, and the market is underestimating the risk that the Fed may choose not to cut rates in December. If a rate cut decision is made, how many dissenting votes there will be is very interesting. With the rotation of four regional Fed presidents, their stances will reveal how much independence they intend to maintain and how much pressure they will exert on the Fed. ( Jintou )