#ETH走势分析 has been in the crypto market for 8 years, with account numbers going from tens of thousands to breaking 20 million. The tuition fees paid along the way are probably more than most people’s principal.

People often ask me how I pick coins and how I judge targets like $FF , $ZEC $SOL. Honestly, my methods are not complicated at all. In fact, it’s those seemingly ordinary principles that really keep your account alive.

I’ve seen too many people get carried away when the market surges, going all-in with heavy positions, only to get liquidated and leave the market after just a small pullback. I’ve made that mistake too. Thinking back now, it was really foolish.

**First, my coin selection logic**

I always start with the top gainers list. Why? Because coins that have gone up are being watched by capital, have trading depth, and only then might have opportunities down the road. I don’t touch those long-term sideways, completely stagnant coins.

But just looking at the daily K-line is useless. I focus more on the monthly MACD. If there’s a golden cross, I consider building a position. No golden cross? Then I stay in cash and wait. Many people like to bottom-fish coins that have been cut in half, hoping for an oversold rebound, but those low-probability events are basically giving money away.

**Next, entry timing**

The 60-day moving average is something I check every day. If the price pulls back to around the 70-day line and trading volume increases significantly, that’s a signal to add positions. The market will give you opportunities—the key is whether you can wait for the signal to appear.

After entering, don’t get attached. If it rises, hold. If it drops below the support line, clear your position immediately. The easiest way to lose money is the mindset of “let’s wait and see if it bounces back,” which turns floating profits into deep losses.

**Take-profit rhythm is also crucial**

Don’t expect to capture all the gains. When it rises 30%, cut your position in half; if it rises 50%, cut another half. The market can change at any time. If you miss today’s opportunity, there’s always tomorrow, but if you lose your principal, you’re really done.

**One final iron rule**

If it drops below the 70-day line, exit unconditionally. This is a rule I strictly follow in every trade. No matter how long you’ve held the position, no matter how much you’ve already made, if it breaks the level, you leave. Don’t fight the trend, don’t gamble with probabilities. This rule is what kept me alive during several major crashes.

There is no 100% win rate in the market, only the discipline that lets you survive.