How will personnel changes at the Federal Reserve shake up the crypto market? A research report from CICC offers some intriguing scenarios.

The core view is straightforward: If Hassett is indeed nominated as the new Fed Chair, U.S. Treasury yields and the Dollar Index may dip before rebounding. What does this mean for digital asset holders? If the new leader sends dovish signals in Q1 next year, the dollar could face short-term pressure, and some safe-haven funds might temporarily flow into higher-volatility risk assets—giving cryptocurrencies a short-lived boost.

However, this window of opportunity may not last. Once policy expectations are met and economic data improves, the dollar is likely to regain strength and capital will almost inevitably flow back to traditional markets. At that point, crypto asset volatility will increase significantly, making one-sided bets risky.

For regular investors, there’s no need to panic, but intuition alone won’t suffice. Two key indicators are worth closely watching: the tone of the new chair’s first statements, and the real state of the U.S. economy. In volatile markets, portfolio allocation matters far more than frequent trading—holding core assets, keeping ample cash on hand, and buying quality assets in tranches during pullbacks is much more rational than blindly chasing rallies or selling in panic.

External variables are always there; the key is whether you can find certainty amid the noise. Should you hold and wait for a rally, or buy on dips? The answer to this question lies in each person’s individual risk tolerance.