An interesting contradiction is unfolding: on one hand, the market is betting that the Bank of Japan will hike rates in December, while on the other, traders are still frantically shorting the yen. Citi’s so-called “yen pain index” is still stuck in negative territory—in plain terms, traders simply don’t believe the yen can make a comeback.

Why are they so certain? Because even if Kazuo Ueda really dares to raise rates just a little, that deep and bottomless interest rate gap between the US and Japan is still looming. USD/JPY bulls know exactly what’s up: a symbolic 25 basis point move won’t shake the bigger picture at all.

So the conclusion is harsh—the Bank of Japan can’t really catch the market off guard just by talking tough. It would take something drastic, a policy “nuclear bomb” that blows everyone’s expectations out of the water, to actually shut up those shorting the yen. Otherwise? They’ll just keep shorting as usual.