Here’s the most important thing to watch this week—the last FOMC meeting of the year, happening December 10-11.

To put it simply, this meeting will directly decide whether there will be enough money flowing into the crypto market in the near future.

The key moment is in the early hours of December 11 (Beijing time). Once the interest rate decision is out, the short-term market trend will basically be set.

First, let’s talk about what’s highly likely to happen: a 25 basis point rate cut is almost a sure thing. The federal funds rate will most likely fall within the 3.75% to 4% range. According to CME data as of December 7, the market is pricing in an 87% chance of this happening.

But the real question isn’t whether there will be a rate cut, but what comes next.

There’s already internal debate at the Fed, with the hawks not wanting to keep cutting. So this meeting will likely signal: no more rate cuts for now, and future moves will depend on the data. Once that’s out, market expectations will immediately shift.

There’s also a technical move worth noting—a possible adjustment to the balance sheet.

To stabilize the short-term interest rate market, the Fed might announce that it will start buying short-term Treasuries from January 2026, thus expanding the balance sheet again. Note, this isn’t quantitative easing; the goal is to provide additional reserves to the banking system, which will have limited impact on the long-term bond market.

In short, keep a close eye on things over the next couple of days.