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There are three extremely crucial dates in December, and the market in the next three weeks will basically fluctuate around these three events. Here’s a brief summary:

First: December 11, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
The market originally expected no rate cut in December, but now the probability of a cut has been hyped up to about 87%.

Second: December 19, Bank of Japan interest rate decision.
The market had previously thought the Bank of Japan wouldn’t raise rates in December, but this week the governor suddenly made some suggestive remarks, leading most to believe there’s now a high chance of a rate hike on the 19th.

Third: December 26, Bitcoin’s year-end “massive” options expiration.
This is the most critical day for the entire options market: it’s not only the Q4 quarter-end expiration, but also the last expiration of the year, with a notional value as high as $23 billion—a very large scale.

The first two are major news events. The Fed’s rate cut or the Bank of Japan’s rate hike would already be enough to move the market, but now market expectations for both have deviated, so the uncertainty is even greater.

The third issue is about options structure. Based on current data, the max pain point for Bitcoin options is at $100,000; but it will be very difficult for Bitcoin to break through and stay above $100,000 in December. Meanwhile, around $84,000, institutions have bought put protection. A few days ago, after BTC fell below $84,000, it didn’t consolidate at the bottom but instead quickly bounced back, which is probably related to this point.