#数字货币市场洞察 The monetary policy meeting on December 10 now has a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, according to the market.

More importantly, QT may come to an end. Once the liquidity floodgates open, the dollar weakens, bonds come under pressure, and hot money naturally flows into high-risk assets. Looking at historical data—BTC’s average increase after a December rate cut is 9.7%. This time, a move from 89K to 95K or even breaking 100K makes sense logically.

Institutions have already started moving. A top asset management company swept up $4.9 billion in a single month. When the fear index drops to the 20 level, it often signals a short-term bottom.

How should you operate? In the 89-90K range before the rate cut, you can build positions in batches—don’t rush to chase. When the policy decision is announced, if a dovish signal is released, directly increase your position, aiming for 95-100K.

Even if there’s a small chance of no rate cut (8% probability), adding more at 85-86K isn’t a loss—the long-cycle trend for 2026 is clear. If you seize this opportunity, next year could look completely different.

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