At 8:30 PM tonight, the August inflation data will be released. This is not just an ordinary data release—it will directly determine the Fed's rate cut moves next week and also the fate of the crypto market going forward.

After eight years of market watching, I've seen too many instances of "false prosperity." Last week, PPI fell and employment data was weak, and the market started celebrating "cooling inflation." But everyone is ignoring a fatal blind spot: core services inflation. Prices for essential expenses like housing and healthcare are far stickier than you might imagine. Their volatility is enough to instantly evaporate all rate cut expectations.

Tonight's key threshold is core services inflation at an annualized 3.6%.

What happens if this number is breached? Liquidity will tighten instantly, the Fed's policy direction will shift immediately, and the speed at which funds exit risk assets will be so fast you won't have time to react. If it holds steady or comes in lower? That would be the real turning point—Bitcoin would lead the rally, capital would flow back in, and altcoins could see a short-term frenzy.

But don't be fooled by the apparent calm in the stock market. Crypto is always an amplifier of panic sentiment; if CPI blows past expectations, the sell-off will hit digital assets first. Those holding long positions should start calculating their risk exposure now.

Chasing altcoins at this moment? Stay calm and think it through.