Gold Warning: Analyst Says Record Rally May Be Near Its Peak

Source: Coindoo Original Title: Gold Warning: Analyst Says Record Rally May Be Near Its Peak Original Link: https://coindoo.com/gold-warning-analyst-says-record-rally-may-be-near-its-peak/ Gold has spent most of 2025 defying gravity, smashing record after record and attracting global attention as investors piled into safe-haven trades.

But one prominent macro analyst now argues that the spectacular rise is masking a far more fragile market — one that could unravel suddenly.

Key Takeaways

• Top economist believes gold’s record-breaking rally is losing strength beneath the surface.
• Bearish RSI divergence and a weakening trendline suggest a potential major reversal.
• Despite strong year-to-date gains, gold may struggle if momentum continues to fade.

A Rally That Looks Strong on the Surface — but Not Below It

Henrik Zeberg, known for his cycle-based macro calls, has issued one of his starkest warnings of the year. In his view, the latest stretch of price action is giving off signals that typically appear at the end of major bull phases.

Rather than celebrating gold’s climb above $4,200, he believes traders should be watching what’s happening underneath the chart.

According to Zeberg, gold’s highs have continued inching upward — but its momentum has not. The divergence between rising prices and a falling RSI suggests the engine driving this rally is weakening. This kind of split is often interpreted as a market losing strength even while setting new records.

A Fragile Structure Forming Beneath the Market

Zeberg also points to the shape of gold’s recent volatility. Instead of clean continuation patterns, he sees a wide, tired consolidation zone that has repeatedly pushed the metal back from its upper boundary.

The longer gold fails to escape this ceiling, the more vulnerable it becomes to a sharp reversal.

Another pressure point: an ascending trendline that has supported the uptrend for months. Zeberg warns that a decisive break under that line wouldn’t just be a dip — it would signal a structural failure, potentially marking the beginning of a far deeper decline.

In his words, gold is “about to fall over the cliff in a very big way.”

The Warning Lands at a Time of Unusual Optimism

Zeberg’s analysis clashes with the tone that has dominated most of 2025.

Central banks have been buying aggressively, investment demand soared, and macro uncertainty pushed gold to more than 50 fresh all-time highs this year alone. Many predicted that this strength would carry into 2026, especially if recession risks grew.

But the economist argues that the main bullish narrative — rising inflation expectations — no longer supports the current price. In his view, sentiment has reached a point where even small changes in investor behavior could trigger outsized reactions.

Market Snapshot Ahead of the Fed Decision

Gold finished the most recent session at $4,198, down 0.24% on the day but still up an eye-catching 60% year-to-date.

The modest pullback came as traders positioned for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where expectations of a rate cut continue to build. Silver, in contrast, surged to new records.

Whether gold stabilizes or confirms Zeberg’s bearish scenario may depend on how the Fed shapes the macro backdrop heading into early 2026.