#数字货币市场洞察 To be honest, after being in the cryptocurrency market for a while, you'll notice a pretty counterintuitive phenomenon: those "smart money" types who are always studying complex indicators and chasing the latest news actually tend to lose the fastest. On the other hand, those who seem a bit "dull" and just stick to their rules often end up as the seasoned survivors.

I'm an example myself. After going through several bull and bear cycles, my trading system has actually become simpler and simpler, and now I just rely on a few basic methods:

**On Entry and Exit Timing**

Have you noticed that after a coin drops for seven or eight days in a row, it suddenly rebounds? This isn’t superstition—it’s the natural law of emotions and positions. When a strong asset keeps pulling back from its highs and all the panic sellers are gone, a stabilization signal will emerge. At this point, testing the waters with a small position is much safer than chasing coins that have just started to move.

On the flip side, if your position has been rising for two days and you're sitting on a 20%+ unrealized gain, what should you do? Take profits in batches. Don’t get greedy—the market never only goes up. If you don’t lock in profits, it’s always just a numbers game.

Here’s a hard-learned lesson: if a coin surges more than 7% in a single day, there’s a very high chance it will pull back the next day. You might think “the trend is just starting,” but more often than not, it’s the final pump before the main holders sell. In these situations, it’s better to miss out than to be left holding the bag.

**Which Coins to Touch and Which to Avoid**

Never touch weak coins, even if they were once glorious. Assets that have lost market recognition have very limited rebound potential and their pullbacks can go very deep. Instead of betting on a “king’s comeback,” it’s better to wait until it truly stabilizes.

Another easily overlooked point is consolidation. If a coin is moving sideways in your cost range for more than three days without any clear breakout, it’s time to consider switching positions. Time is also a cost, and holding low-efficiency positions is essentially wasting opportunity.

Another iron rule: if a coin breaks below your cost basis and doesn’t recover the next day, cut your losses immediately. This means the trend has weakened, and your “just wait a bit longer” will most likely lead to a deeper loss.

**Technical Analysis Isn’t That Mysterious**

Volume and price action are key. A breakout with increased volume at a low point usually means funds are starting to enter and build positions—this is a window of opportunity worth watching. But if there’s big volume at a high and the price can’t go up, it’s a clear sell signal—don’t hesitate, just get out first.

As for moving averages, there’s no need to overcomplicate things: the 3-day moving average is good for short-term trading, the 30-day for medium-term, and only consider long-term positions if the 120-day is trending well. A bullish alignment is the basic premise—don’t look for opportunities in a bear market, that’s going against the odds.

**A Few Words About Mindset**

Small capital should rely on compounding, not gambling for a turnaround. My habit is to keep any single coin’s position under 10% of total funds, and always withdraw the principal after each profit, rolling only with the gains. This way, even if I’m wrong, my principal is intact and my mindset stays stable.

Never trade crypto full-time, and never borrow money for leverage. Only use spare funds for investing—this way, you can make rational decisions. Once you have repayment pressure or life burdens, your trades will suffer: chasing pumps, panic selling, stubbornly holding losses—all these fatal mistakes are driven by stress.

There’s one more thing most people can't do: be patient. The real rhythm of trading is 80% waiting, 20% acting. Most of the time, the market doesn't present clear opportunities—at these times, staying on the sidelines is the best strategy.

In the end, the most powerful weapon in this market isn’t any advanced strategy, but consistently applying simple rules over and over. Those seemingly “dumb” methods actually help you filter out noise and capture real core profits. If you’re currently lost, giving up gains as soon as you make them, or can’t control your emotions after losses, maybe it’s time to pause and rebuild a system that suits you.