The number from CME shot straight up to 87%—a rate cut in December? This is pretty much a sure thing. Even Morgan Stanley is scrambling to change its tune, betting on a 25 basis point cut.

But inside the Fed? It's complete chaos.

Governor Mielan spoke out directly: at these interest rate levels, job opportunities are getting crushed. Williams from New York also loosened his stance, saying there’s still room for policy moves. Daly from San Francisco went even further, bluntly stating that if the job market collapses, it’ll be much harder to fix than a rebound in inflation.

The hawks aren’t buying it. Four officials collectively flashed the red card: price pressures are spreading from goods to services, and loosening policy now could wipe out all previous efforts. Boston Fed’s Collins is even more cautious—maybe the current rate level is exactly what’s needed to truly rein in inflation.

The market is ready to celebrate, but the Fed is still torn between "protecting jobs" and "controlling inflation." The December meeting is sure to make waves.