The global markets have been a bit schizophrenic these past couple of days. The Fed is fueling hot rate cut expectations, while the Bank of Japan is going the other way, talking about tightening. The crypto space hasn’t figured things out yet, but if you think about it, Japan’s market isn’t that big, so the chances of major turmoil are low.

The real focus should be on next week’s event—the Fed’s FOMC meeting on December 9-10. Right now, the market is almost unanimous, betting on a 25 basis point rate cut, with the federal funds rate likely dropping to 3.75%-4%. The data from CME is even more blunt, showing an 87% probability of a rate cut.

But at the end of the day, the biggest wildcard is still Powell. The guy’s tone can shift unpredictably—he was hawkish last time, but who knows, he might turn dovish this time.