Recently, there’s been a strange phenomenon in the market—USDT is trading at a discount, while on some compliant exchanges, it’s actually at a premium. What’s really going on behind the scenes?

Let’s clear our minds and follow the data.

Bitcoin has been hovering around 89,000 USD these past few days (with a low of 88,100), so let’s use 89,000 as our reference. What’s the situation domestically? A lot of people are frantically dumping USDT. Do you think they’re just selling BTC at 89,000 and converting it to USDT? Wrong.

A few days ago, USDT could be exchanged at 7.13, so 89,000 USDT was worth 633,680 RMB. Now? With an exchange rate of 6.95, you actually get only 618,550 RMB. That’s a direct evaporation of 2.4%! In other words, you thought you sold your BTC at 89,000 USD, but you really only got 86,864 USD (calculated backward using the 7.12 rate). The US dollar hasn’t depreciated—the loss comes from converting BTC to USDT and then to RMB.

You’re selling your Bitcoin at a 2.4% discount.

On the flip side, people who buy USDT with RMB and then buy BTC are nominally buying in at 89,000 USDT, but their actual cost is only 86,864 USD. Does the math make sense now?

Looking across the ocean, on some compliant platforms, buying BTC directly with USDT is at a premium—this means US capital is accumulating, while over here, people are selling at a discount. When USDT returns to 7.12, the US side will have naturally made a 2.4% profit. Of course, if you use RMB to buy USDT now, you can also capture that 2.4%.

I heard from a friend who deals 50 million USDT a year that right now, they’re only buying, not selling, and are crazily hoarding USDT.

So what’s the truth? It’s not that everyone is trying to escape, but rather that the USDT you sell at a discount is being picked up by big-money players. The market has always been dictated by capital, not retail investors.

Let’s do the math: If there’s no influx of new capital, when USDT returns to 7.12, as long as BTC doesn’t fall below 86,864 USD, you won’t lose money based on RMB cost. If it stays at 89,000, the BTC you bought for 618,550 RMB is worth 633,680 RMB.

Your USDT is selling at a discount, and your Bitcoin is also selling at a discount. Who are you selling to? Think about it.