Been going back and forth on this after some ChatGPT deep dives. My hot take? Bubbles arrive early—never late.

There's this old-school chart floating around titled "Periods When to Make Money." It breaks down economic and market cycles across decades, grouping them into three buckets that just keep rotating:

• Category A = Panic Years
• Category B = Recovery Phases
• Category C = Boom Times

What gets me is how people always expect the mania to lag behind fundamentals. But history? History says otherwise. The froth shows up before the infrastructure's even solid. We saw it in 2017, we're seeing hints of it now. The hype train doesn't wait for the rails to finish getting laid.

So if you're sitting around thinking "it's too early for a bubble"—maybe that's exactly when it's starting.