Is the threat of quantum computing overestimated? This is what blockchain should really be worried about

[Bitpush] The quantum computing threat is a bit overhyped.

Latest research shows that a quantum computer truly capable of cracking modern cryptographic systems is basically out of reach before 2030. But that doesn’t mean we can relax completely—a leading investment firm has proposed a smart approach: implement hybrid encryption schemes now.

Why? Because there’s an attack method called “harvest now, decrypt later,” where data is collected today and decrypted with quantum computers once they become available. This poses a significant threat to traditional communication encryption, but has limited impact on blockchain digital signatures. So on-chain projects don’t need to rush to change their signature algorithms—they can take their time.

However, Bitcoin faces some unique challenges. Its governance mechanism is notoriously slow to change, and there are a large number of coins from the early days that may be lost and are sitting in addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks, so migration plans need to be made in advance. Privacy chains are in even more urgent need of post-quantum protection, since their transaction data is encrypted and must be secured as early as possible.

At the end of the day, current security vulnerabilities in code are a much more immediate concern than the distant quantum threat. What the industry needs is a pragmatic, step-by-step strategy—not panic driven by sci-fi scenarios.