#数字货币市场洞察 ETH ZEC LUNC

December Rate Cut Suspense: The Fed Is Deeply Divided

Next Tuesday and Wednesday (December 9-10), the Federal Reserve is meeting again. This time, there’s only one focus—will they cut rates or not?

The market can hardly wait. Data from the CME shows that 87% of people are betting on a 25 basis point cut this time, bringing the federal funds rate straight down to 3.75%-4%. Even Morgan Stanley has changed its tune; after previously insisting “let’s wait,” now they’re directly predicting a cut in December.

The loudest voice among the doves is Governor Milan, who put it bluntly: “High interest rates are killing the job market. If we don’t cut soon, it’ll be too late.” New York Fed’s Williams also made an ambiguous statement—“there’s still room for adjustment in the short term”—pay attention to that “short term,” you know what that means. He also emphasized policy needs to return to neutral so as not to wreck the labor market.

San Francisco’s Daly was even more direct, making it clear: a cut in December is a must! Her logic is straightforward: once layoffs start, there’s no stopping them. Inflation rebound? That’s a problem for later; we have tools to deal with that gradually.

But the hawks aren’t sitting idle. Four voting officials have publicly questioned consecutive rate cuts, arguing that inflation has already spread from goods to services, and the fire is still spreading. Boston Fed’s Collins is the most nuanced: she supported a cut last time (October), but now she’s hesitating, thinking the current “moderately restrictive” rate may need to stay a while longer.

So the situation now is: one side is shouting “save the economy,” while the other worries about “inflation reigniting.”

With the meeting countdown on, the crypto market is also waiting for a signal. Cut or no cut? We’ll know next week.