Market sentiment is undergoing a subtle shift.

According to the latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has climbed to over 93%. Behind this number is the outcome of institutional traders voting with real money—the pricing logic of the interest rate futures market is quietly being restructured.

This expectation is not driven by a single factor. Recently released CPI data shows that inflationary pressures continue to ease, with core inflation indicators falling for three consecutive months; at the same time, the unexpected weakness in non-farm payroll data has brought the "soft landing" narrative back to the forefront. The language used by Federal Reserve officials is also shifting—from "maintaining restrictive policy" to "cautiously assessing the next steps," signaling a potential policy pivot between the lines.

But the key issue is not the rate cut itself, but the chain reaction that follows.

Once the liquidity floodgates open, where will the funds flow? Traditional safe-haven asset gold has already responded in advance, hitting a new all-time high; the three major US stock indices are fluctuating in a wait-and-see mode; and the cryptocurrency market, as one of the asset classes most sensitive to liquidity, may face even more intense volatility. The trends of mainstream coins like ETH and ZEC may provide an early reflection of the market’s pricing logic regarding “easing expectations.”

Of course, there’s a double-edged sword here. Rate cuts mean lower borrowing costs, which theoretically benefit risk assets; but if rate cuts are due to heightened recession fears, capital may lean toward safety rather than risk-taking. Every historical policy inflection point has been accompanied by dramatic directional choices—this was true in 2008, and again in 2020.

For ordinary participants, the real challenge is not predicting whether a rate cut will happen, but finding certainty amid uncertainty. Will the purchasing power of cash erode? Do fixed-income products remain attractive? How should the allocation ratio of risk assets be adjusted? There are no standard answers to these questions, but there is one iron rule: when the macro narrative undergoes a fundamental shift, those who react first are often able to capture structural opportunities.

The December FOMC meeting may become the most important watershed in this year’s financial markets.