Today, I want to talk to newcomers about a harsh reality.

Let me be blunt: for regular players like us, the path of technical analysis isn’t just a dead end—it’s more like a carefully laid trap.

Some might object—"But what about James Simons? Didn’t Renaissance Technologies’ Medallion Fund make a fortune with technical analysis?"

Stop right there. What Simons does is nothing like what retail investors do. Many people light up when they mention Simons, treating him as the ultimate proof that technical analysis works. Look, the Medallion Fund has delivered insane returns for thirty years using pure mathematical models and algorithmic trading—doesn’t that prove you can make big money just by tracking price movements and ignoring fundamentals?

That logic is a textbook case of survivor bias, and even more, it’s a severe overestimation of one’s own abilities.

We need to understand what Simons’ team is actually doing. Simons himself is a top-level mathematician, and none of his staff are traditional suit-and-tie financial analysts. They’re all PhDs in physics, astronomy, and statistics.

These people couldn’t care less whether a project is doing DeFi or NFTs—they only look at data. And what they do is nothing like the market’s typical “technical analysis” with MACD crossovers or counting Elliott Waves.

They play with extraordinarily complex statistical arbitrage.

To put it another way: for regular people, predicting ETH’s movement is like looking at the clouds to guess if it’ll rain. But Simons’ team? They collect every second of wind speed, humidity, and air pressure data for decades, run it through supercomputers, and find tiny probability deviations you’d never even notice.

For example, they might discover: when two exchanges show a $0.01 price difference at the millisecond level...

(The original text cuts off here, but the main point is clear.)

So you see, they’re using hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure, a team of PhDs, vast historical data, and highly complex mathematical models. And you’re staring at candlestick charts on your phone, hoping a few simple indicators will let you copy their strategy?

This isn’t even the same game. Simons’ success doesn’t prove technical analysis is useful for retail traders—it only proves that with extreme resources and professional expertise, statistical arbitrage is possible.

But that threshold is not something ordinary people can cross.