Bank of America’s latest report drops a bombshell: Don’t just focus on the 25 basis points in December—the real turning point is in January next year. The market has already started betting on “unexpectedly loose” policy, and this time, it might be the Fed following the market, not the other way around.

Why is that? There are three layers to this logic:

**First Layer: December is policy inertia, January is when the market takes the initiative**
A rate cut in December is pretty much a done deal, but the Fed will definitely maintain its cautious stance, continuing to say “it depends on the data.” The problem is, the market isn’t buying it at all. With inflation falling, weak employment data, and surging government debt costs, these fundamentals have basically locked in the rate cut path. So traders are skipping over official statements and already pricing in the next move in January.

This is the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that market expectations are ahead of the central bank. What does this mean for BTC? Once liquidity expectations open up, highly elastic assets benefit first.

**Second Layer: The data window before January is a catalyst**
Before the January FOMC meeting, a bunch of key economic data will be released. This creates a “two-way accelerator”: weak data → rate cut expectations heat up; strong data → inflation pressure eases, giving the Fed more room to maneuver. Either way, expectations for easing are being reinforced.

Looking back at history, one-sided easing expectations often correspond to the kickoff of bull markets: 2019 policy shift, 2020 unlimited QE, 2023 spot ETF groundwork… If 2025 really sees accelerated rate cuts ahead of schedule, how much upside imagination space is left for BTC from the $80K level?

**Third Layer: The Fed has lost control of the narrative**
This Bank of America report basically spells it out: once the rate-cut chain starts, capital will flow ahead of time into high-risk assets. BTC, ETH, SOL, MEME sectors… all high-beta assets will be repriced.

Right now, the market is extremely low-volume, retail sentiment is panicked, and whales aren’t moving their positions—this is often the best time for major players to accumulate. The deeper the panic, the cheaper the chips; the lower the expectations, the stronger the rebound.

**Simply put:**
The market is ignoring the Fed’s conservative stance and directly betting on the start of an easing cycle. Even Bank of America admits it can’t be stopped. The more pessimistic the sentiment, the greater the explosive power once liquidity turns. This isn’t a top signal; it’s the final buildup before the bull market takes a deep breath. Don’t get shaken out at the starting line.