Bitcoin once again pulled back from $126,000 to $90,000, and the voices shouting “this time is really different” have gradually quieted down. History is repeating itself yet again, and the four-year cycle curse is still in effect.

Let’s first talk about what this four-year cycle is all about.

Bitcoin was designed with reference to gold’s scarcity—its supply halves every four years. Later, people looked back and found that each bull market basically erupted around the year before and after the halving. This highly consistent timing is what’s called the four-year cycle.

It’s really quite mysterious. The stock market and real estate also have cycles, but none are as punctual as Bitcoin.

Some might ask: Since the pattern is so clear, wouldn’t everyone following the script make it fail early?

In theory, that makes sense. As early as 2021 and 2023, some foreign bloggers precisely predicted that Bitcoin would peak in October last year. If everyone believed this, buyers should have retreated early and prices would have crashed accordingly.

But in reality—since 2019, the saying “halving = bull market” has already spread throughout the crypto world. So what happened? The pattern still worked, and even the number of days in bull and bear markets closely matched previous cycles.

Why? Logically, since the information is public and transparent, the market should have corrected this pattern.

The problem is this: most people only “know” it, but don’t truly “believe” it. In my observation, very few people are truly committed to the cycle theory and operate according to its rhythm.

If you don’t believe it, just take a look at those bloggers and KOLs, not