#数字货币市场洞察 $BTC $LUNC $LUNA

A recent data point is pretty interesting: the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December has already jumped to 87%. What does this mean? Simply put, money might be about to get "cheaper."

Over the past two years, high interest rates have been like a tightening spell on the market. With high borrowing costs and low expected returns, everyone naturally holds onto their money. But now the trend seems to be shifting—as rates start to ease, capital will look for new opportunities. And high-volatility assets like Bitcoin are often among the first to benefit when liquidity returns.

Why is that? Here are a few points to discuss:

With funding costs dropping, institutions will be more willing to invest. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, who manage massive funds, won't wait for the "official announcement" to take action. With an 87% probability, smart money has already started quietly positioning.

On the miners' side, less financing pressure means mining costs can be controlled, leading to a healthier ecosystem overall. Miners don't have to rush to sell their coins to cover costs, so selling pressure naturally eases.

On-chain data is also intriguing: long-term holders are selling less, coins continue to flow out of exchanges, new address activity is climbing, and ETF funds are starting to enter again. Putting these signals together, market sentiment is indeed recovering, though it's not at the "everyone's rushing in" stage yet.

Of course, the question remains: is this rebound just a short-term bounce, or the prelude to a new cycle? The macro environment is shifting, institutions are increasing their positions, on-chain data is improving—these pieces all point in the same direction, but the market will never tell you the answer in advance.

The real opportunities are usually hidden when most people are still on the sidelines. What do you think?