Next week will be a critical moment—the Federal Reserve's final rate-setting meeting of the year is here.

At 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on December 12, the interest rate decision will be announced, and half an hour later, Powell will hold a press conference. Currently, the market expects an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut (data from the CME FedWatch Tool). But this meeting may be much more complicated than people think.

What's the issue? Serious internal divisions.

Of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, surprisingly, 5 have reservations about further easing monetary policy, while on the Board of Governors, 3 support a rate cut. Keep in mind, since 2019, there hasn't been a single meeting with more than three dissenting votes. Such a rare split makes the market especially nervous—who will vote against? What signals will Powell send?

In addition to the Federal Reserve's big event, there are other things to watch next week:

**Tuesday**: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision, followed by a press conference from Governor Bullock;

**Wednesday**: US Q3 labor cost data will be released; the Bank of Canada will also announce its interest rate decision; also, note that the US stock market will close early (2:00 a.m. Beijing time);

**Thursday**: It's the Federal Reserve's big day. In addition to the rate decision, the Summary of Economic Projections will be released, and weekly jobless claims data will be published at the same time;

**Friday**: The Federal Reserve will release its report on household finances for Q3 2025, and several Fed officials will give speeches—Philadelphia Fed's Harker, Cleveland Fed's Mester, and Chicago Fed's Goolsbee will all make appearances.

Special reminder: Thursday coincides with the Christmas holiday. US, many European, Korean, and Australian stock markets will all be closed, and futures trading on CME and ICE will also be suspended for a day.

For the crypto community, the Fed's stance directly affects liquidity expectations. If multiple dissenting votes do emerge this time, it could mean the space for rate cuts next year is more limited than expected, which isn't good news for risk assets. Conversely, if Powell takes a dovish stance at the press conference, there may still be room for market imagination. In short, keep a close eye on that 3:30 a.m. press conference.