$ETH

Short-term oscillation and speculation, direction unclear: The 15-minute chart is consolidating sideways in the 3000-3070 range with no clear trend; the 4-hour chart is finding support near the 3000 level, but MACD is contracting, and DIF and DEA have formed a death cross, indicating bearish momentum is dominant. Overall, the market is at a critical decision point, facing a dilemma between up and down.

Trading Plan (Based on 15-Minute + 4-Hour Timeframe Confluence)

1. Long/Short Entry Conditions (Strictly Follow Range Breakouts + Indicator Confluence)

- Long entry: 15-minute chart holds above 3050 (short-term pivot), and 4-hour chart closes back above the EMA15; at the same time, 15-minute RSI stays within the 40-70 range (to avoid overbought), and trading volume increases by more than 30% compared to the previous 5 periods; enter a test position.

- Short entry: 15-minute chart breaks below the 2980-3000 support zone, and the 4-hour chart pierces the lower Bollinger Band (around 2972); meanwhile, 15-minute RSI is not below 30 (to avoid oversold), and trading volume also surges; enter a short position with the trend.

2. Stop Loss and Take Profit Settings (Risk-Reward Ratio ≥1:2)

- Long stop loss: set below $2970 (lower edge of strong 4-hour support); take profit in two levels: first target 3100, second target 3150-3200 (key 4-hour resistance zone).

- Short stop loss: set above 3080 (upper edge of the 15-minute range); take profit in two levels: first target 2920, second target 2870 (recent strong support zone).

3. Position and Risk Control

Single entry position should not exceed 5% of total capital to avoid slippage risk due to low weekend liquidity.

- If the 15-minute chart oscillates in the 3000-3050 USD range for more than 3 periods without a breakout, stay on the sidelines and avoid blind entries.