#美联储政策预期 Looking back at the market’s ups and downs over the years, every policy change by the Federal Reserve has played out like a grand drama. Now, expectations for a rate cut in December have risen to 82.7%, as if history is about to repeat itself. Bitcoin has broken through $89,000, and the Nasdaq surged 2.69%—this scene reminds me of the frenzy at the end of 2017. But history tells us that excessive optimism is often a dangerous signal.

From past experience, the Fed’s statements often trigger an overreaction in the market. Right now, investors seem very confident in bullish year-end options, concentrating bets in the 85K to 200K range. This sentiment reminds me of the atmosphere before multiple bubble bursts.

However, every cycle has its own unique characteristics. The negative funding rate indicates that leveraged longs have been flushed out, which may provide some cushion for the market. But we cannot ignore the soon-to-be-released retail data and core PCE indicators, which could act as the fuse that ignites the market.

History always repeats itself in new ways. We should remain vigilant, while also recognizing that opportunity often hides in uncertainty. The market’s performance in the next few days will be a key observation window and is well worth our close attention.