In the past couple of days, both BTC and ETH have shown a pattern that seasoned traders are all watching—the price rallies for two consecutive green candles and then suddenly weakens, with trading volume dropping off as well. You think this is a buildup? It might just be clearing the way for new bag holders.

The news of a 25 basis point rate cut has already been priced in by the market for a week. The real question keeping people up at night is: Will there actually be a cut in December? And even if there is, will it be enough to satisfy these speculators who are used to being fed?

Remember the rate cut back in September? On the day the news was announced, ETH tanked 12% immediately, and all the longs who entered early got buried. History may never repeat itself exactly, but it has this nasty habit—it likes to trip up the same group of people in similar situations.

The current position is delicate. The bullish narrative has already been hyped to the max, and expectations for the end of balance sheet reduction in December have been fully priced in ahead of time. But if the data falls short, or if Powell says anything like "cautious observation" at the press conference, the stampede could come faster than you think.

There’s an old saying in crypto: buy the rumor, sell the news. Right now, expectations are maxed out and the facts are about to be revealed. At times like this, the most dangerous thing isn't the bad news itself—it's when "there are no new stories to tell."

The next 48 hours are a watershed. The cautious have already reduced their positions to below 30%, the aggressive are eyeing support levels to buy the dip, and the worst off are those who can’t bear to leave but haven’t decided on a strategy—when the market swings, their mindset collapses first.

If you want to make money at a time like this, it’s not about reading the charts—it’s about getting in the right position ahead of time. There’s only one thing to do now: wait. Wait for the data to come out, wait for emotions to settle, wait for the real opportunity to appear.

Dancing on the knife’s edge is fine. Just don’t do it barefoot.