#数字货币市场洞察 $ETH $ZEC $LUNC

There has been a subtle change in US inflation data. Last Friday, the Commerce Department released the September Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), with a month-on-month increase remaining at 0.2%, but the year-on-year rate dropped to 2.8%, the lowest in the past three months. The market had generally expected it to stay at 2.9%, so this unexpected decline has sparked much discussion.

This report was delayed by several weeks due to the government shutdown. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy volatility, is the Fed's main indicator for observing long-term inflation trends. Now that the data is loosening, many are speculating whether policy will follow suit. Although officials are still maintaining a cautious stance, the market is already reacting.

Interestingly, the period covered by this report—just before the government shutdown on October 1—shows that consumer spending was already slowing. Ordinary people's spending is tightening, with consumption mainly supported by high-income groups. Black Friday sales data looks relatively stable, but underlying sentiment has begun to tighten.

However, it's not all bad news. Another report shows that in early December, the consumer confidence index rose for the first time in five months. A University of Michigan survey indicates that inflation expectations are improving and confidence in personal finances is recovering.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has not yet determined when the next PCE report will be released, but this current data has already given the market plenty of room for imagination. How will the Fed respond? Will rate cut expectations heat up? For the crypto market, these macro signals often have a greater impact on short-term trends than specific project developments. The next few weeks will be worth watching.