#美联储货币政策预期 Seeing this report from HSBC, I can’t help but recall the days after the 2008 financial crisis. Back then, the market was also filled with pessimism, but it was precisely in those troughs that new opportunities emerged. The current situation is somewhat similar to that time—the VIX futures curve shows spot premium, and the S&P 500’s expected net profit (excluding tech stocks) has dropped by 8%, both reflecting weak market sentiment.

However, history tells us that it’s often when everyone feels gloomy about the outlook that it might actually be a good time to increase positions. Just like how I bought against the trend during the panic back then and later reaped considerable gains. Now, with the Fed possibly cutting rates in December and earnings season expectations set low, this may well be a good time to position.

Of course, every cycle has its unique aspects, and we can’t simply apply past experiences. But in the long run, those who dare to seek opportunities amidst pessimism often achieve excess returns. The key is to control risk and choose targets carefully. After all, the market is never short of “surprises”; what we can do is stay calm amid volatility and find hope in fear.