The probability of a rate hike for the Japanese yen on December 19 has soared to 76% (swap market data). Historically, yen rate hikes have repeatedly triggered volatility in global financial markets, making them a potential "black swan" catalyst.

The yen's monetary policy has always been closely tied to the US dollar, and this rate hike is no exception to US policy coordination—after all, the Federal Reserve is sending strong signals of rate cuts at the same time. This seemingly contradictory combination of "yen up, dollar down" is actually a mutually beneficial exchange between the US and Japan achieved through exchange rate and interest rate adjustments.

The market is currently in a sensitive period of policy divergence, and volatility in risk assets like ETH is bound to intensify. A reminder to everyone: always use stop-losses when buying the dip, strictly control your position size, and never go all-in blindly. Otherwise, a sudden drop could force you out of the market.