#数字货币市场洞察 Bitcoin 1-hour chart shows weakness; bottom-fishing now is asking for losses

Take a look at BTC’s recent 1-hour price action—the technical signals are pretty clear: if you rush in to bottom-fish now, you’re basically walking into a trap.

The technical issues are obvious. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price only managed to stabilize at 88,056, but can’t even reach the middle band at 90,500; the upper band at 91,492 is basically a hard ceiling. This rebound is so weak it’s worrying.

The MACD death cross is still in place, and although the green bars have narrowed a bit, selling pressure hasn’t eased at all. This little rebound? Just a trap for those chasing the rally.

On-chain activity is even more concerning: last night, BTC inflows to major exchanges surged by 23,000 coins. Big players moving coins to exchanges isn’t a sign of long-term holding—they’re clearly preparing to cash out. Futures market leverage has shot up to 6.8x, mostly from retail piling into long positions. In this kind of structure, any drop can trigger rapid liquidations.

The macro environment isn’t helping either. This morning, the Fed’s Beige Book pointed out that inflation is stickier than expected, and the probability of a December rate hike jumped from 10% to 25%. The dollar index immediately rose 0.8%. For highly volatile assets like crypto, this kind of environment usually hits first and hardest.

My view is straightforward: this rebound tops out at 90,000 before reversing, either consolidating near 88,000 before breaking down, or accelerating straight toward 86,000.

There are always people calling for a bottom, but jumping in now is just handing your chips to the big players. If you really want to survive and make money in this market, you need to learn how to read the flow of funds—don’t rush to catch every falling knife.