Ethereum holders, take note: the probability of a yen interest rate hike on the 19th of this month has reached 74%, and there may be a chain reaction behind this number.

Looking back at past market records, yen policy adjustments have never been a solo act. Every rate hike is like throwing a stone into a pond—the ripples spread from the forex market to the stock market, and eventually transmit to the cryptocurrency sector. The price volatility of assets like ETH often becomes even harder to predict during these times.

What’s trickier now is the current policy divergence. The yen is preparing to tighten liquidity, while the Federal Reserve is signaling possible rate cuts. It’s rare to see these two major central banks taking opposite stances. This kind of divergence makes it hard for market participants to find direction, leading to chaotic capital flows.

If you’re considering buying the dip on ETH right now, here are a few things you must think through:

Set your stop-loss in advance. Don’t count on luck to save you—if the market experiences an unexpected crash and you don’t have protection in place, your position could be wiped out, and you’ll be left with no chips when the market eventually recovers.

Position sizing is also crucial. During macro policy battles, building your position in batches is much wiser than going all-in at once.

In the short term, ETH’s trend is heavily influenced by external factors, so it’s better to be conservative than to take aggressive risks and suffer losses.