#美联储货币政策预期 Looking back, I have personally experienced countless market fluctuations. The current correction in the US stock market reminds me of the days following the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the market also went through violent swings, and investor confidence was deeply shaken. However, history always repeats itself.

Now, it seems that this round of adjustment may have bottomed out. UBS's analysis makes a lot of sense—both technicals and fundamentals are showing positive signals. In particular, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have both dropped to near their 100-day moving averages, which is often a good opportunity for a rebound. Coupled with a slowdown in systematic fund selling and expectations that the Federal Reserve may restart its rate-cutting cycle, this does indeed create favorable conditions for the year-end market.

However, seasoned investors know that the market never follows a set script. While we can look forward to the S&P 500 surging to 7,000 points by year-end, we must always remain vigilant. After all, those seemingly certain predictions in the past have often been mercilessly shattered by the market.

It’s worth noting HSBC's optimistic stance on risk assets. They mentioned a rare spot premium in the VIX futures curve, which is indeed an interesting signal. Combined with the current low market expectations, it seems to set the stage for a rebound in the coming months.

Looking back at history, every major rally is often born out of pessimism. But we should also remember that excessive optimism is equally dangerous. At this time, staying calm and rational and managing risk are the wisest moves. After all, market cycles come and go, and only prudence and patience are the keys to weathering both bull and bear markets.