#数字货币市场洞察 On the night of December 1, Fed Chair Powell’s speech poured cold water on the market. Everyone was expecting him to send a dovish signal, but instead, his tone was rather hawkish—basically saying the inflation fight isn’t over and rate cuts will come slowly. As soon as he said this, the crypto market went straight into roller-coaster mode.

Bitcoin’s moves were pretty dramatic. After the speech, it initially tanked, dropping below the $87,000 mark, and a lot of people thought it was over. But soon after, it bounced back and hovered around $88,500. On the surface, it looked like “all the bad news is priced in,” but if you look closely at the data, it’s not that simple—funding rates are still low, and whales are actually moving more coins onto exchanges. The message is clear: some people are using the rebound to offload, and the underlying structure is actually quite shaky.

Now everyone’s eyes are on the December 12 FOMC meeting. Powell’s latest speech basically killed any hope for a December rate cut; the real direction won’t be clear until next week’s rate decision and dot plot. By the way, keep an eye on rate hikes in Japan too, as those policies will have a linked impact on the market.

Looking ahead to the next two months, the logic is actually clearer: don’t expect a one-way bull market until the FOMC makes it clear that “higher rates will stay for longer.” High volatility and choppy moves will be the norm, so you need to be mentally prepared.

My strategy advice is simple and practical—now’s not the time to predict the market, but rather to think about how you’ll respond. The market has already shifted from “trading on rate cut expectations” to “facing reality,” and your approach needs to adjust with it:

First, don’t make one-sided bets. Before the meeting, just accept that volatility is the main theme—don’t blindly go long, and don’t panic short either. Second, stick to spot and low leverage. If you’re trading futures, keep leverage under 3x—that’s basic risk management. Finally, act only at key levels—accumulate spot positions in batches at support, or wait for real breakouts at resistance before taking small positions. The rest of the time, keep your hands off.

To put it bluntly, when it comes to the big macro policy machine, retail predictions don’t matter. The truly smart move isn’t guessing what Powell will say next, but making sure no matter what the outcome, you have a plan to survive—and a way to seize on market mistakes.

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