#美联储货币政策预期 Looking back, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy adjustments have always affected the nerves of global financial markets. Now, with expectations of a rate cut in December heating up, I’m reminded of the period following the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, to stimulate economic recovery, the Fed implemented large-scale quantitative easing policies, bringing interest rates down to near-zero levels.

Today, the situation seems somewhat similar. CME data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has risen to 82.7%. Behind this shift is the market’s concern about the economic outlook. Comments from Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly have further fueled these expectations.

However, history tells us that the effects of monetary policy are often delayed and complex. The low interest rate environment after 2008 did help the economy out of trouble, but it also sowed the seeds for subsequent asset bubbles. Now, we stand at a similar crossroads once again.

Bitcoin briefly surged past $89,000, and the Nasdaq jumped 2.69%—these market reactions are reminiscent of the early stages of previous bull markets. But we must not forget that every boom cycle hides its own risks.

Looking back through the long river of history, we should treat this short-term market sentiment with caution. Monetary policy adjustments are a double-edged sword: they can boost the economy, but may also lead to new problems. For investors, staying clear-headed and managing risk are the keys to long-term success.