Attention ZEC holders, the most critical scene of this rate cut drama is unfolding.

The Trump camp is making increasingly obvious moves. His nominated economic advisor, Hassett, recently stated publicly: next week’s FOMC meeting must deliver a rate cut. Even more intriguing, there used to be several candidates on the list for Fed Chair, but now only Hassett remains. The signal this sends is clear—once he takes over, a shift in monetary policy might come much faster than expected.

Economic data is also supporting this narrative. The ADP jobs report unexpectedly turned negative, and the employment component of the services index has been shrinking for six consecutive months. This data has given the rate-cut advocates plenty of ammunition, and market bets on a December rate cut have soared to 87%. Almost everyone is waiting for the Fed’s final confirmation.

But is it really that simple?

Deutsche Bank just issued a warning: the current economic fundamentals may not support such aggressive rate cut expectations from the market. Hawkish members within the Fed are still fighting hard on the inflation issue, and Powell himself has repeatedly stressed the Fed’s independence. Those in the know are well aware of the discord between him and Trump.

This is the situation now: on one side, you have Hassett representing the “dovish camp,” with a clear slogan—cut rates quickly, keep them low; on the other side, Powell leads the “data-driven camp,” insisting on following the indicators and refusing to yield to political pressure.

The power struggle is at a fever pitch. The market is feverishly betting on a rosy “liquidity flood” story, but what the Fed ultimately delivers may well be just a cautious tweak. The gap between expectations and reality is often the most dangerous place.

So, for next week’s meeting, will it be “good news delivers another rally,” or “overblown expectations lead to a reversal and losses”? This is a question every position holder should consider seriously.

Which side do you trust more? Trump’s push for aggressive easing, or Powell’s steadfast independent judgment?

ETH’s price action may also be directly affected by the outcome.