#数字货币市场洞察 $ETH This hour’s price action needs close attention.

First, looking at the chart signals: the Bollinger Bands are widening downward, and although the price rebounded after breaking below the lower band and touching 2978, the technical pattern looks more like a pause in a downtrend. The MACD indicator has formed a bearish crossover, with both the DIF and DEA lines running below the zero axis. Although the green bars have slightly contracted, the bearish momentum has not been fully released yet—blindly bottom-fishing at this level carries significant risk.

On-chain metrics are also noteworthy: last night, ETH deposits on exchanges surged by 30%, which typically means large holders are choosing to exit during the rebound window. Meanwhile, on-chain stablecoin flow data hasn’t expanded in sync, indicating that new capital is not eager to enter and that buying support is clearly lacking.

Macro factors are also adding pressure. The latest Fed statement signals that “high interest rates will persist for longer,” which directly impacts the pricing of risk assets. At times like this, the correlation between the crypto market and US equities tends to intensify.

Operationally, my view is that bears are still in control. If there’s a short-term rebound to the 3050 area, it may present another shorting opportunity. If the 2970 support breaks, further testing of 2900 is highly likely. With technical, capital, and macro pressures stacking up, staying cautious is more rational than blind optimism. Those who follow the market rhythm know that the market never rewards wishful thinking.