UBS recently made a prediction: at the beginning of 2026, the Federal Reserve may buy $40 billion in short-term Treasuries every month.

How should we interpret this? Simply put, bond buying is like injecting money into the market. Although the authorities might not explicitly call this quantitative easing, the actual effect is pretty much the same—it all increases liquidity. This assessment actually matches a few previous signals: one is the potential appointment of Hassett, and another is Delphi’s forecast that 2026 will see rate cuts and a return to positive liquidity. Connect these dots, and the picture becomes clearer.

Is the market really about to shift?