The suspense over rate cuts hasn't been resolved yet, but the personnel drama has already taken the stage first.

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett recently made his stance clear: at next week's FOMC meeting, there will be a 25-basis-point rate cut, no doubt about it. That statement was blunt enough, but what's more interesting are the moves behind the scenes.

The original list of ten candidates waiting in line for a final interview for the Fed chair position suddenly shrank to just one. The official explanation was "schedule changes," but it's not hard to figure out—the decision was made early on. When Trump was recently cornered by reporters about this, he laughed and said Hassett was a "potential chair candidate," making things pretty obvious between the lines. Loyalty plus market savvy—Hassett checks both boxes.

The timing is also quite coincidental. The November ADP employment data came out, showing a drop of 31,000 jobs, while the market was hoping for a gain of 5,000. The employment indicators in the service sector are even worse, contracting for six consecutive months. This is the last major jobs report before the December meeting, and the case for a rate cut is now overwhelming.

CME's "FedWatch" tool shows that traders are now betting there's an 87% chance of a rate cut in December. Basically, everyone is just waiting for the official announcement.

But Deutsche Bank poured some cold water on the anticipation: don't celebrate just yet. The foundation of the US economy might not be able to handle too aggressive a rate-cutting pace, and there are still quite a few hawks internally holding the line. If rates do get cut, the move may be much more cautious than the market expects.

Here's a quick rundown of the candidates: Hassett is now the frontrunner, with a clear pro-rate-cut stance; Waller is more traditional and cares more about inflation; Waller is data-driven and relatively neutral; Powell is the incumbent, but his relationship with Trump has always been rocky, and he emphasizes the need for central bank independence.

It looks like the decision to change personnel has already been made, the policy stance is clear, and the data just happens to support it. But there are still two hurdles ahead: economic fundamentals and internal resistance. What the market is waiting for now may not be the question of "whether to cut," but rather "how" and "how fast" the cuts will come.