The market is wrong about Strategy's stocks, expert says

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: The market is wrong about Strategy’s shares, expert says Original Link: Over the past few months, shares of Strategy (MSTR) have experienced a strong downward trend on the US stock market. The pullback in corporate treasuries’ cryptocurrency strategies is palpable. This even predates the start of Bitcoin’s crash that began on October 10. This has caused MSTR to suffer a sharp sell-off, bringing its performance to -38.82% so far in 2025.

Despite this rough patch, analyst Carmelo Alemán from the CryptoQuant platform assures that the market is misreading these assets. He points out that MSTR shares should now be at a much higher level than where they are. This suggests that the recent drop in these shares is based more on subjective factors than organic ones.

In his view, the price of these assets should be much higher than investors assume. This is because traders are overlooking the data behind the Bitcoin strategy’s balance sheet. Currently, the firm holds 649,870 bitcoins in its corporate reserves, with an average purchase price of $74,433 per coin.

He highlights that this amounts to an unrealized gain of more than +20%. This metric is the best representation of where Strategy’s share price should be.

Strategy shares remain well below the key $200 support.

Strategy shares could rebound upwards

The fact that MSTR is currently in an undervalued position means that the market’s natural performance could balance them out. In the cited analysis, the expert uses CryptoQuant’s price bands applied to these shares to make his point.

The firm’s shares fell below the lower band, which determines that they are undervalued. Generally, this band becomes a preliminary line for a rebound. If history repeats itself, this level of undervaluation could mark one of the most important turning points in recent years.

MSTR could be close to a bullish rebound.

Despite the optimism from the expert’s analysis, the market does not seem ready to push Strategy’s shares higher. On Monday, the price of Bitcoin experienced a drop due to massive liquidations that prolong the bear market trend.

The correlation between the cryptocurrency and Saylor’s firm’s shares is close, and so the new BTC decline could punish MSTR even more.

Recently, the company’s CEO, Phong Le, highlighted the conditions under which Strategy could liquidate part of its bitcoins. He pointed out that this would be a last resort driven by loss of access to capital and if its shares fall below their net asset value.