$ZEC

Last night, the market witnessed a rather surreal scene: the USDT to RMB exchange rate fell below 7, while ETH surged by 10% in a single day. A lot of people were baffled at first—how can a stablecoin drop? Is something major about to happen?

But if you take a step back, you'll realize it's not that simple. On the surface, it's just exchange rate numbers fluctuating, but in reality, it's two forces clashing head-on in the market, and such confrontations often signal something significant.

**First force: Drastic changes in monetary policy expectations.**

Recently, there have been rumors in the market that Trump is planning to replace the current Fed chairman and appoint Hassett, who favors a more dovish policy. Regardless of whether this is true, the market has already voted with its feet—there’s now almost a 90% probability of a rate cut in December, and the total expected rate cuts next year may reach 50 basis points.

A weakening dollar is almost certain, the RMB is passively appreciating, and the offshore USDT exchange rate is naturally under pressure. The rate below 7 that you're seeing now might not even be the bottom.

**Second force: Regulatory moves are starting to precisely target the gray areas.**

Recently, there's been a crackdown on illegal USDT exchanges and money laundering channels, significantly squeezing the operation space for cross-border funds. Some holders are selling off for risk-avoidance, leading to a short-term spike in supply and a direct drop in the exchange rate. This is emotional selling pressure, but the impact is real.

So here’s the question: If USDT is dropping, why are major coins rallying? That’s what’s really worth pondering.

The logic isn’t complicated. With expectations of a weaker dollar, global capital is looking for new safe-haven assets, and the crypto market is perfectly positioned to absorb this demand. While regulatory crackdowns cause short-term panic, in the long run, they’re cleaning out non-compliant funds and paving the way for institutional money to enter.

Historical data is also quite interesting. Looking back at previous cycles, you’ll find that before every major market rally, the USDT exchange rate always comes under short-term pressure. This typically means funds are switching tracks from off-market to on-market—the money isn’t leaving, it’s just moving to a different pool.

**Market sentiment is clearly divided right now.**

Newcomers see the drop in USDT price and instinctively get nervous: “Even stablecoins aren’t stable—is it time to pull out?” But veterans who’ve been through several cycles are staying calm; some have even started trading—taking advantage of USDT’s low price to swap for coins now, then swapping back when the rate recovers, pocketing the difference as pure profit.

Of course, this kind of move requires a solid grasp of market timing. If you’re just fixated on decimal point fluctuations, it can be stressful. But if you focus on broader trends—Fed policy shifts, compliant funds entering, major coins starting to move—these signals together are actually quite clear.

What do you think? Will USDT keep dropping, or will it bounce back soon? Share your thoughts in the comments.