The volatility in the crypto market in December is not random. Three key time windows are reshaping the market rhythm, and each of these points could trigger significant price swings.

First, let's look at the Federal Reserve's rate decision on December 11. The current market expectation for a rate cut has reached 87%—which means liquidity could loosen again. Historical experience shows that whenever the Fed signals easing, mainstream assets like BTC and ETH often experience rapid surges. Will this time be any different?

Next is the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on December 19. If the BOJ starts raising rates, global capital flows could reverse—yen carry trade unwinding would drain liquidity from some risk assets. In the short term, this puts pressure on the crypto market, but it also creates a timing gap for low-entry positioning.

The most critical is December 26: a massive end-of-year Bitcoin options expiry, with a notional value of $23 billion. Looking at the open interest distribution, there's a large concentration of CALL positions above $100,000, forming obvious resistance; while PUT options are heavily clustered around $84,000, creating a strong support area.

Connecting these three events, the market is likely to fluctuate repeatedly between $84,000 and $100,000.

The trading logic isn’t complicated—Fed rate cut expectations could push prices to test the upper range, BOJ policy might create pullback opportunities, and the period around options expiry will confirm the final direction. Consider accumulating positions in batches near $84,000, gradually reducing holdings as it approaches $100,000, and trade the range in between.

Remember, in the crypto market, information asymmetry is often more valuable than technical skills. These three time points are already on the table—what’s left is execution.