#美联储重启降息步伐 Has the market trend changed? This crypto cycle feels a bit different.

In the past, it was enough to focus on the Fed's interest rate policy, but now political factors must be considered as well. The attitude of the US policy circle toward cryptocurrency is quietly shifting—regulatory frameworks may loosen, and compliance paths could open up. More importantly, the market is pricing in a 94% probability of a rate cut in December. What does this mean? Liquidity. Massive liquidity inflows, and risk assets naturally benefit.

With the macro outlook improving, the bear market gloom is fading. But stay calm; several key time points must be closely watched: the US election outcome, Fed meetings, and regulatory statements. Any variable could disrupt the rhythm.

Just look at recent market moves—everyone is positioning early. A leading exchange launched a children's version product, clearly aiming to nurture long-term users; USDT is trading at a negative premium, capital is flowing in, and altcoins are becoming active. These signals are clear: the prelude to the mid-stage of the bull market has begun.

What should you do with your investments? The long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged. If there’s a short-term pullback due to negative news, it’s actually a window for long-term positioning. Continue holding mainstream coins like $BTC , and for small-cap coins, pick sector leaders with solid fundamentals that can benefit from regulatory easing.

But one thing to note—good news is often accompanied by sharp volatility. Don't chase heavily at the top; managing your position size is more important than anything else. Old-school privacy coins like $ETH could see unexpected performance if the regulatory environment really improves.

In today’s market, understanding macro logic is more important than staring at the charts.