There’s a harsh truth in trading circles—

The players who survive the longest never rely on flawless predictions.

What’s their real secret weapon? Even when they’re wrong, it’s never fatal.

Those who brag about their sky-high accuracy rates? Look them up—nine times out of ten, they’ve already blown up their accounts and left the game. So what if you’re accurate? One big mistake with heavy leverage and you’re done for.

I once saw an interesting interview:

A journalist cornered an old hand who’d been doing CTA for 30 years and never got wiped out by the market, and asked, “What’s the trade you’re most proud of in your career?”

Guess how he answered?

He didn’t talk about catching a 10x coin or brag about riding a perfect trend.

What the market always teaches us is how to admit mistakes gracefully, not how to fake being right.

Surviving matters more than being correct.