#ETH走势分析 Ethereum 1-hour chart is entering a critical watershed; technical signals are worth a closer look.

**Where are the resistance and support levels?**

Currently, the upper Bollinger Band near 3197 is capping the short-term rebound. If the psychological level of 3200 can hold, the upside potential may open up. Next, keep an eye on the previous high at 3239; if there's a breakout with strong volume, 3300+ is within reach. On the downside, it's crucial to hold the lower Bollinger Band at 3114—breaking below would be problematic. The MA90 at 3167 is very close to the current price, so whether the bulls can hold depends on this level.

**How do the bulls and bears look?**

MA7 and MA90 are tangled together right now, and EMA30 is moving sideways—a classic tug-of-war between bulls and bears. MACD bars have just turned green, and DIF has crossed below DEA, indicating bears are starting to show up. But don't forget, the rebound structure since 2718 hasn't been broken yet. A real trend reversal would require a break below 3115.

**What about the macro environment?**

Expectations for a Fed rate cut are still brewing, but beware of a "sell the news" effect. After Cancun upgrade went live, Layer2 ecosystem activity is a key window to watch. On-chain data shows exchange balances are declining, which is healthy in the long run; but staking growth is slowing, so some tokens might be unlocked in the short term.

Operationally: If it breaks above 3197, consider following to see if it can test 3239; if it falls below 3115, be cautious and focus on preserving capital.

$ETH