#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 Caution: Japan might be about to make a move, rate hike expectations are brewing

Recently, the market has been speculating that the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates in December or early next year. If this really happens, the impact could be significant.

To put it simply, here's the logic: for years, the yen's interest rates have been near zero, and how much global capital has been using the yen for carry trades? Borrow yen, convert it to dollars, and then pour it into high-risk assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies. If Japan really raises rates now, this money will have to pay back its debt, and when the selling pressure comes, it's hard to say whether risk assets can withstand it.

What's even more critical is that the Fed's rate cut expectations are cooling down as well. With both Eastern and Western central banks tightening policies at the same time, the liquidity game could fundamentally change.

The market data is already telling the story. Bitcoin has already pulled back from its recent highs, spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows over the past few days, and market sentiment has clearly cooled. Leveraged players have been hit hard in this wave of volatility, and the market structure was already fragile—this turmoil has made it even more unstable. On-chain activity for some major blockchains has dropped, asset prices are falling, and the decline in risk appetite is obvious.

Honestly, this year-end period is pretty sensitive. Major central bank meetings are clustered together, and liquidity is already poor due to the holidays, so the probability of sharp volatility is not low.

Here's a suggestion: Now is definitely not the time to go all in. Manage your positions well, use as little leverage as possible, and don't gamble on direction in such an uncertain environment. Wait for clearer signals from the market, keep enough cash flow, and surviving is more important than anything else. In this market, patience is worth more than aggression.