#美联储重启降息步伐 Gold prices held up this week! Bond yields soared, the US dollar is making a comeback, but gold has stubbornly held its ground. The whole market is waiting for one piece of data—the US September PCE inflation report. This is the Fed’s favorite indicator and will directly determine whether there will be another rate cut in December.

On December 4, spot gold inched up 0.13%. It may not look like much, but the market was anything but calm. In early trading, it briefly dropped near $4,175, with bears clearly testing the support level. What happened? The bulls fought back and pulled the price up to $4,219, finally closing at $4,208.60 per ounce. What does this price action indicate? There’s still buying interest, but everyone’s waiting for that crucial data.

By the Asian session on December 5, gold prices continued to hover around $4,205. There’s just no way around it—it’s a data vacuum right now, and nobody dares to make big moves.

So here’s the question: Why is gold so resilient?

First, the US 10-year Treasury yield did go up. In theory, higher yields should attract capital to bonds, which would push gold lower. But don’t forget, even though the US dollar index rebounded from a one-month low, it’s still pretty weak overall. A weak dollar makes gold cheaper for overseas buyers, which is why the selling pressure isn’t that heavy.

Marex analyst Edward Meir put it bluntly: High yields do limit gold’s upside, but a weak dollar gives gold breathing room. The two forces offset each other, so the market is basically stuck at this level.

What’s the key now? Still that PCE data. If the inflation data is mild, expectations for a December Fed rate cut will heat up, and gold could break out. But if the data is unexpectedly high, that’s trouble—rate cut expectations will cool off, and gold may test the $4,175 support level again.

Medium- and long-term buyers have been accumulating at lower levels, which you can see from the price action. Every time it pulls back to around $4,180, there are buyers stepping in, showing that big money is still bullish on gold in the long run. After all, geopolitical tensions are still there, and the debt issue hasn’t been resolved, so gold’s safe-haven appeal remains.

What’s the short-term strategy? Honestly, chasing highs right now is pretty risky. It’s better to wait for the PCE data. If there’s a pullback to the $4,180–4,190 range, you could consider building a position in batches. The upper resistance is at $4,230–4,250; if it can hold above $4,250, the next target could be $4,300.

But at the end of the day, this market is basically a bet on the data. If you guess right, there’s profit to be made; guess wrong, and you might have to take a loss. More cautious investors might want to wait until the direction is clear before entering the market. After all, with gold, there’s always another opportunity.