#比特币对比代币化黄金 Has the market sentiment shifted? A betting frenzy suddenly erupts on crypto prediction markets

Recently, while keeping an eye on Polymarket trading data, I noticed something interesting—a real-money bet on the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December has surged to 93%. Honestly, this number is beyond just being “optimistic”—it’s almost a consensus. In contrast, only 8% believe rates will remain unchanged, which is basically a marginalized view now.

What makes these prediction platforms unique is that they’re not just surveys—participants are voting with their own money. When you see such a one-sided probability, the message is clear: the market is no longer caught up in “will they cut,” but is already thinking about “what to do after the cut.” With softer inflation data and slowing economic growth, traders are getting positioned early.

But this potential policy shift impacts more than just interest rates. With liquidity being released again, there could be chain reactions in the stock, bond, and crypto markets. $ETH $BNB $ASTER Whether these assets will get volatile as a result is still unclear—it depends on where the money flows.

Here’s the question: Is this 93% bet really reliable? Or is it another case of market sentiment getting ahead of reality, only to be disappointed later? What’s your take on this rate cut expectation?