#数字货币市场洞察 The Bank of Japan’s policy shift is reshaping global capital flows. The latest data shows that the probability of a rate hike in December has climbed above 80%—behind this figure lies a systemic adjustment as years of loose monetary policy come to an end.

For a long time, near-zero-cost yen borrowing has provided international capital with a cheap source of funds. Many institutions and investors have borrowed yen and invested in US stocks, emerging markets, and high-yield crypto assets. The scale of this carry trade is estimated to be in the trillions of dollars. But once borrowing costs rise, these funds will inevitably face pressure to flow back.

The crypto market is particularly sensitive to liquidity changes. When carry trades start to unwind, it not only causes direct capital outflows, but more importantly triggers a chain reaction in market sentiment: as the world’s last bastion of monetary easing falls, risk appetite will quickly shrink. Given already limited market depth, this panic could trigger a cascade of leveraged position liquidations.

How should we respond right now? Here are a few ideas:
First, proactively reduce leverage exposure. Cut futures positions to a minimum or even shift entirely to spot holdings.
Second, keep ample stablecoin reserves on hand so you’re not caught off guard during severe market swings.
Third, closely monitor the statement from the December policy meeting and the subsequent two-day price action, as this is often a key window for the release of market sentiment.
Fourth, review history: the rate hike cycle in 2018 and the yield curve control adjustment in 2022 both triggered short-term panic selling, but it was precisely during those moments that the seeds of the subsequent rebound were sown.

Tightening liquidity will weed out false prosperity and highlight assets with real support. What’s needed at this stage isn’t a gambler’s mindset, but calm judgment and patient waiting.

$BTC $ETH