#数字货币市场洞察 The Bank of Japan might really take action this time.

Takayasu Kudo, an economist at Bank of America, directly stated: at the December 18-19 meeting, there’s a high probability that the policy rate will be raised from 0.5% to 0.75%. If this happens, it’s not just a simple adjustment—it’s a true signal of starting a tightening cycle.

Why make a move now? Several signals are pretty clear—recent corporate earnings data has started to recover, the results of the spring wage negotiations were decent, and most importantly, the yen has remained weak, which is a clear pressure point. Plus, with coordination with government policy, the timing is definitely right.

But the bigger move is still ahead. According to Bank of America’s forecast, this won’t be a one-off—they’ve already laid out a future rate hike schedule: once in June 2026, once in January 2027, and again in July 2027, following a standard half-year adjustment rhythm. Japan is set to say goodbye to long-term easing and head toward normal interest rate levels.

The market impact will definitely be significant. The yen exchange rate might finally strengthen, the government bond yield curve will need to be recalculated, and corporate financing costs will inevitably rise—then we’ll see if Japanese companies can handle it.

For us, it’s also worth paying close attention. Any shift in the yen’s trajectory could move capital flows and somewhat affect the global liquidity landscape. The outcome of that December meeting is definitely worth waiting for.